Target Audiences: Intermediate (3-9 years of experience)
Category: Cash Management
Fred Church, Deputy Budget Director at the Ohio Office of Budget and Management will present a survey of business and government forecasting, with an emphasis on the review of quantitative techniques such as exponential smoothing and basic linear regression analysis. There will be a focus on avoiding the pitfalls of spurious correlation and spurious regression, which result in “false positives” in time series analysis, i.e. finding quantitative relationships that do not in fact exist. Forecasting is viewed as a process with continuous evaluation of forecasting model performance and model revision as needed.