Target Audiences: Intermediate (3-9 years of experience)
Category: Cash Management
Fred Church, Deputy Budget Director at the Ohio Office of Budget and Management will present a survey of business and government forecasting, with an emphasis on the review of quantitative techniques such as exponential smoothing and basic linear regression analysis. There will be a focus on avoiding the pitfalls of spurious correlation and spurious regression, which result in “false positives” in time series analysis, i.e. finding quantitative relationships that do not in fact exist. Forecasting is viewed as a process with continuous evaluation of forecasting model performance and model revision as needed.
Frederick Church is the Deputy Budget Director at the Ohio Office of Budget and Management. He is responsible for revenue and Medicaid forecasting and tax policy, and he supervises all of the budget section chiefs at OBM. Prior to his current position, Fred was Deputy Tax Commissioner for Tax Policy and Budget at the Ohio Department of Taxation. As Deputy Commissioner, Fred oversaw the work of five divisions: Research, Legislation, Budget, Communications, and Revenue Accounting.
Prior to becoming Deputy Commissioner, Fred had two other positions at the Ohio Department of Taxation. He was the head of the Research Division, and prior to that he was Chief Policy Advisor to the Tax Commissioner. Before coming to the Ohio Department of Taxation, Fred worked for the Comptroller of Maryland as Assistant Director, Bureau of Revenue Estimates, from 1999 through 2000. Fred began his career at the Ohio Legislative Budget Office, working there from 1987 to 1999, last serving as Senior Economist.
Fred earned his B.A. in Classical Studies and his M.A. in Economics from Syracuse University. He was a Ph.D. candidate whose fields were public finance and labor economics.